India – Australia – SL and SA – World Test Championship Battle. The World Test Championship (WTC) 2023-2025 cycle has reached a crucial juncture, with multiple teams still in contention for a place in the final, which will be held at the iconic Lord’s Cricket Ground from June 7-11, 2025. As cricket fans across the globe eagerly watch the standings, the competition is fiercer than ever. The top contenders include India, Australia, Sri Lanka, and South Africa, while New Zealand, Pakistan, and Bangladesh still have mathematical chances but face a tough path to qualification.
In this article, we will delve into the current standings, scenarios, and the series that will decide the finalists. Additionally, we will provide match details, team profiles, stadium information, and the significance of this historic tournament.
The WTC Standings: A Quick Recap
As of now, several teams are vying for the top two spots in the WTC table, with India leading the charge. They are closely followed by Australia, South Africa, and Sri Lanka, while New Zealand and Pakistan still harbor slim hopes of making it to the final. Bangladesh and West Indies have almost been ruled out, but they can still play a significant role in deciding who advances by winning key matches against top contenders.
Here’s a breakdown of how each team stands and what they need to do to secure a spot in the final:
India’s Journey to the WTC Final
- Current PCT (Percentage of Points): 74.24%
- Remaining Series: 3 Tests vs New Zealand (Home), 5 Tests vs Australia (Away)
- Key Matches: India’s upcoming series against New Zealand and Australia will be crucial. Even if India manages to whitewash New Zealand at home, they will still need to win at least two Tests in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy (BGT) against Australia to keep their PCT above 70%. A draw in the BGT could be enough, but a loss would jeopardize their chances.
Key Players to Watch: Virat Kohli, Rohit Sharma, Jasprit Bumrah
Stadiums for Upcoming Matches:
- Eden Gardens, Kolkata – Iconic for its capacity and history in Indian cricket.
- Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG), Australia – Hosting the crucial BGT matches.
Australia’s Path to the Final
- Current PCT: 62.50%
- Remaining Series: 5 Tests vs India (Home), 2 Tests vs Sri Lanka (Away)
- Qualification Scenarios: Australia can finish with a maximum of 76.32% if they win all their remaining seven matches. Their home series against India will be pivotal. If they can secure a 3-1 win in the BGT and follow it up with a 2-0 victory against Sri Lanka, Australia will cement their place in the final. However, a 2-2 draw in the BGT, followed by a 1-1 draw in Sri Lanka, will drop their PCT to 57%, allowing other teams to overtake them.
Key Players to Watch: Steve Smith, Pat Cummins, David Warner
Stadiums for Upcoming Matches:
- Sydney Cricket Ground (SCG) – Home to some of Australia’s finest moments in Test cricket.
- Galle International Stadium, Sri Lanka – Known for its picturesque setting and turning pitches.
Sri Lanka’s Strong Push for the Final
- Current PCT: 55.56%
- Remaining Series: 2 Tests vs South Africa (Away), 2 Tests vs Australia (Home)
- Chances of Qualification: Sri Lanka has emerged as a strong contender, especially after gaining 24 points from their last two matches. If they win all their remaining four Tests, they will finish with a PCT of 69.23%. However, if they lose even one Test against South Africa or Australia, their chances of overtaking Australia become slim. They will then have to rely on other results.
Key Players to Watch: Dimuth Karunaratne, Angelo Mathews, Lasith Embuldeniya
Stadiums for Upcoming Matches:
- Kingsmead, Durban, South Africa – Known for its pace and bounce.
- Pallekele International Cricket Stadium, Sri Lanka – A fortress for Sri Lankan cricket in recent years.
South Africa’s Road to Redemption
- Current PCT: 38.89%
- Remaining Series: 2 Tests vs Sri Lanka (Home), 2 Tests vs Pakistan (Home), 2 Tests vs Bangladesh (Away)
- Qualification Scenarios: South Africa’s hopes hinge on winning all their remaining six matches. This would elevate their PCT to 69.44%, enough to secure a place in the final. However, a loss in any of these matches will significantly diminish their chances. If they lose even one Test, their PCT will drop to 61.11%, making them dependent on results elsewhere.
Key Players to Watch: Kagiso Rabada, Dean Elgar, Quinton de Kock
Stadiums for Upcoming Matches:
- Newlands, Cape Town – One of the most scenic venues in world cricket, with Table Mountain in the backdrop.
- Sher-e-Bangla National Cricket Stadium, Dhaka – Known for its turning pitches and vocal crowd.
New Zealand Slim Chances
- Current PCT: 37.50%
- Remaining Series: 3 Tests vs India (Away), 3 Tests vs England (Home)
- Qualification Scenarios: While New Zealand still has a theoretical chance, their path to the final is exceedingly difficult. If they win all six of their remaining matches, they will finish with a PCT of 64.29%. However, given their upcoming series includes three Tests in India—arguably the toughest assignment in cricket—it seems unlikely that New Zealand will qualify for the final.
Key Players to Watch: Kane Williamson, Tim Southee, Ross Taylor
Stadiums for Upcoming Matches:
- Seddon Park, Hamilton – Known for its batting-friendly pitches.
- Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai, India – A venue with a rich history in Test cricket, hosting crucial matches in the series against India.
Pakistan Struggle to Stay in the Race
- Current PCT: 19.05%
- Remaining Series: 3 Tests vs England (Home), 2 Tests vs South Africa (Away), 2 Tests vs West Indies (Home)
- Qualification Scenarios: Pakistan’s hopes are dim after a disappointing series against Bangladesh, where they lost 2-0 and incurred six-point penalties due to over-rate deductions. They can still reach a maximum PCT of 59.52% if they win all their remaining matches. However, their recent form suggests this is unlikely, and they may already be out of the race.
Key Players to Watch: Babar Azam, Shaheen Afridi, Mohammad Rizwan
Stadiums for Upcoming Matches:
- National Stadium, Karachi – Known for its passionate fans and competitive cricket.
- Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore – A historic venue for Pakistan cricket.
Bangladesh Steep Uphill Battle
- Current PCT: 34.38%
- Remaining Series: 2 Tests vs West Indies (Away), 2 Tests vs South Africa (Home)
- Qualification Scenarios: Bangladesh’s 2-0 loss to India has severely hurt their chances. Even if they win all their remaining matches, their PCT will only improve to 56.25%, which is unlikely to be enough to qualify for the final. While Bangladesh has shown improvement in recent years, the lack of consistency in Test cricket remains a concern.
Key Players to Watch: Shakib Al Hasan, Mushfiqur Rahim, Liton Das
Stadiums for Upcoming Matches:
- Queen’s Park Oval, Trinidad – A venue with a rich history in West Indies cricket.
- Zahur Ahmed Chowdhury Stadium, Chittagong – Known for its slow, spin-friendly pitches.
WTC Final Scenarios: Who Needs What?
With only a few series left in this WTC cycle, the race to the final is heating up. Each team has different scenarios and permutations that could see them qualify or miss out. Here’s a breakdown of what each team needs to do:
- India: A 3-0 win against New Zealand and a 2-2 draw in the BGT should secure a place in the final. However, a 4-1 defeat to Australia could jeopardize their chances, opening the door for other teams.
- Australia: A 3-1 win in the BGT and a 2-0 win over Sri Lanka would be enough to secure a spot. However, a 2-2 draw in the BGT followed by a 1-1 draw in Sri Lanka would leave them vulnerable.
- Sri Lanka: Winning all their remaining matches will take them to 69.23%, likely enough to make the final. A single loss will reduce their chances significantly.
- South Africa: Winning all six of their remaining.
Conclusion
As the World Test Championship 2023-2025 nears its climax, the competition is fiercer than ever, with India, Australia, South Africa, and Sri Lanka all battling to secure a spot in the much-anticipated final at Lord’s Cricket Ground. Each team’s road to the final is filled with challenges, and while some have stronger chances than others, the unpredictable nature of Test cricket leaves the door open for surprises.
